Intellify Industry Report
This industry report is updated regularly on a periodic basis by our local research analysis team to ensure accuracy and relevance. The content is developed using publicly available information, insights gathered from primary interviews with industry stakeholders, and other relevant market research methodologies. Market size estimations presented in this report are based on actual data collected from relevant government agencies and industry sources. Our data analyst team applies a proprietary projection model to forecast future growth potential. While we strive to maintain the highest standards of data accuracy and analysis, the findings in this report are subject to change as new information becomes available. This report is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial, investment, or strategic advice.
| wdt_ID | wdt_created_by | wdt_created_at | wdt_last_edited_by | wdt_last_edited_at | Indicator | Unit | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | intellify | 03/01/2025 03:58 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 03:58 PM | Automotive unit sales, total | Number of vehicles | 1007552 | 792146 | 738113 | 849388 | 775780 | 571620 | 592609 | 614377 | 636954 | 660371 | 684660 | 709852 |
| 6 | intellify | 03/01/2025 03:58 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 03:58 PM | Passenger car unit sales, total | Number of vehicles | 468638 | 343494 | 301733 | 348044 | 406992 | 341165 | 354811 | 369004 | 383764 | 399115 | 415079 | 431682 |
| 7 | intellify | 03/01/2025 03:58 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 03:58 PM | Light commercial vehicle unit sales, total | Number of vehicles | 511435 | 425455 | 405237 | 470114 | 341106 | 214157 | 221010 | 228082 | 235381 | 242913 | 250686 | 258708 |
| 8 | intellify | 03/01/2025 03:58 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 03:58 PM | Heavy truck & bus unit sales, total | Number of vehicles | 27479 | 23197 | 31143 | 31230 | 27682 | 16298 | 16787 | 17291 | 17810 | 18344 | 18894 | 19461 |
Amid a tightening macroeconomic environment, Thailand’s automotive sales are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7%, increasing from 592,608 new automotive sales in 2025 to over 709,852 units by 2030. Among vehicle types, sports utility vehicles (SUVs) within the passenger vehicle segment are anticipated to experience the highest demand from Thai consumers due to their suitability for Thailand’s terrain as primary vehicles.
| wdt_ID | wdt_created_by | wdt_created_at | wdt_last_edited_by | wdt_last_edited_at | Indicator | Unit | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | intellify | 03/01/2025 03:57 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 03:57 PM | Automotive unit sales, total | Number of vehicles | 1007552 | 792146 | 738113 | 849388 | 775780 | 571620 | 592609 | 614377 | 636954 | 660371 | 684660 | 709852 |
| 6 | intellify | 03/01/2025 03:57 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 03:57 PM | ICE automotive unit sales | Number of vehicles | 980381 | 761389 | 694635 | 763814 | 601746 | 421969 | 432677 | 443630 | 452478 | 463858 | 475494 | 487388 |
| 7 | intellify | 03/01/2025 03:57 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 03:57 PM | BEV automotive unit sales | Number of vehicles | 724 | 1290 | 2079 | 10674 | 77855 | 73188 | 84738 | 97048 | 110158 | 124112 | 138955 | 154735 |
| 8 | intellify | 03/01/2025 03:57 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 03:57 PM | PHEV & HEV automotive unit sales | Number of vehicles | 26447 | 29467 | 41399 | 74900 | 96179 | 76463 | 75193 | 73699 | 74318 | 72401 | 70211 | 67729 |
Among vehicle types, sports utility vehicles (SUVs) within the passenger vehicle segment are anticipated to experience the highest demand from Thai consumers due to their suitability for Thailand’s terrain as primary vehicles.
Over the forecast period, Thailand’s automotive industry is expected to face challenges from high non-performing loans (NPLs), which have resulted in tighter credit lending conditions for auto loans. This could exert downward pressure on vehicle ownership in the short to medium term. However, during this period, the demand for electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to emerge as a key growth driver for the industry. The electrification trend is projected to result in EVs accounting for 31.3% of total automotive sales by 2030, while internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are likely to continue losing market share. This shift is driven by disruptions caused by an influx of Chinese EV automakers offering cost-effective vehicle options, supported by regulatory incentives and cash subsidy programs
To remain competitive amidst increasing competition and pressures on profit margins, automakers must put strategic focus on expanding their customer base and achieving sustainable profitability. Expanding customer bases requires continuous innovation to offer consumer-centric products, such as improved battery technologies for longer driving ranges and premium features at affordable price points. Additionally, strengthening touchpoints, service centers, and dealership networks is critical to reaching more customers and maintaining long-term relationships with existing ones. A key growth theme for the future includes strategic partnerships aimed at accelerating time to market and increasing market share through consolidation. To enhance profitability, automakers should prioritize optimizing supply chains, pursuing vertical integration, adopting digital transformation strategies, and achieving greater economies of scale.
| wdt_ID | wdt_created_by | wdt_created_at | wdt_last_edited_by | wdt_last_edited_at | Indicator | Unit | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:03 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:03 PM | Passenger car unit sales, total | Number of vehicles | 468638 | 343494 | 301733 | 348044 | 406992 | 341165 | 354811 | 369004 | 383764 | 399115 | 415079 | 431682 |
| 10 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:03 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:03 PM | SUV unit sales | Number of vehicles | 70252 | 68705 | 70939 | 82921 | 114608 | 118650 | 126484 | 134755 | 143485 | 152698 | 162419 | 172673 |
| 11 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:03 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:03 PM | Sedan, hatchback and other passenger car unit sales | Number of vehicles | 398386 | 274789 | 230794 | 265123 | 292384 | 222515 | 228327 | 234249 | 240279 | 246416 | 252660 | 259009 |
Thailand’s passenger vehicle segment is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.0%, increasing from 341,165 new unit sales in 2024 to over 431,682 vehicles by 2030. Within this segment, sports utility vehicles (SUVs) are expected to achieve higher growth compared to other vehicle types, with a forecasted CAGR of 6.5%, rising from 118,650 new unit sales in 2024 to 172,673 vehicles by 2030.
The increasing popularity of SUVs can be attributed to several factors: (a) Their appeal to Thai consumers as a primary vehicle choice for families due to their relatively larger size. (b) Growing use in hybrid commercial applications, particularly for short-distance transport, positioning SUVs as a potential replacement for pickup trucks, especially among local businesses and small and medium enterprises (SMEs). (c) The versatility of SUVs, including features such as higher ground clearance, elevated vehicle height, and superior driving performance, making them well-suited for Thailand’s geographical terrain and long-distance travel across provinces.
Automakers have responded to the rising demand for SUVs by placing greater strategic emphasis on introducing more SUV models. This trend is evident from the more than twofold increase in SUV sales, growing from 56,759 vehicles in 2015. The demand for SUVs extends beyond Thailand to major automotive markets such as China and the United States, further indicating similar consumer preferences in key markets. SUV models designed and manufactured in these major markets are often imported and marketed in developing economies, including Thailand, contributing to the segment’s growth.
We project the sales of sedans, hatchbacks, and other passenger vehicle types to grow at a CAGR of 2.6%, increasing from 222,515 new vehicles in 2024 to 259,009 by 2030. Although this represents a slower growth rate compared to SUVs, these segments are expected to address different customer preferences. Hatchback models are likely to appeal to consumers seeking more economical options with lower entry price points, while sedans and coupes will continue to offer a broader range of choices, including sports, luxury, and premium luxury options. Specifically, we expect the growth of sedans and hatchbacks to be mainly driven by (a) their suitability for urban environments such as Bangkok, where compact size, ease of parking, and maneuverability in congested areas make them practical choices for city-dwelling consumers. (b) their relatively better fuel efficiency compared to larger vehicles, which appeals to cost-conscious buyers and those with environmental concerns. (c) their affordability, as lower initial price points make them accessible to first-time buyers and budget-conscious consumers, further supported by favorable financing terms. (d) their continued preference for corporate and fleet usage due to cost-effectiveness, reliability, and suitability for high-end passengers i.e. business executives. (e) shifting demographic trend towards smaller family size in Thailand
Within this category, boxy cars such as the Fomm One, Wuling Air, and Nissan Cube are expected to remain niche passenger vehicle types compared to larger vehicle segments.
| wdt_ID | wdt_created_by | wdt_created_at | wdt_last_edited_by | wdt_last_edited_at | Indicator | Unit | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:09 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:09 PM | Passenger car unit sales, total | Number of vehicles | 468638 | 343494 | 301733 | 348044 | 406992 | 341165 | 354811 | 369004 | 383764 | 399115 | 415079 | 431682 |
| 13 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:09 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:09 PM | ICE passenger car unit sales | Number of vehicles | 441501 | 312750 | 258389 | 263501 | 234669 | 195417 | 201886 | 208560 | 215444 | 222546 | 229870 | 237425 |
| 14 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:09 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:09 PM | BEV passenger car unit sales | Number of vehicles | 690 | 1278 | 1945 | 9644 | 76144 | 69331 | 77828 | 86893 | 96559 | 106859 | 117828 | 129505 |
| 15 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:09 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:09 PM | PHEV & HEV passenger car unit sales | Number of vehicles | 26447 | 29466 | 41399 | 74899 | 96179 | 76416 | 75098 | 73551 | 71761 | 69710 | 67380 | 64752 |
For passenger segment, it is forecast that internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to remain as a most dominant powertrain for new passenger vehicle sales in Thailand, contributing around 45.0% of total market share of new vehicle sales by 2030, a significant decline from 94.0% sales share from 2019. This is expected to be mainly caused by the country’s gradual shift to electric car, growing environmental & ESG awareness, consumer gravitation for cost-efficiency transport options over long-term uses and market disruption by Chinese OEMs. Sales of ICE have been undercuted by weak domestic spending power, which was itself eroded by a combination of the high cost of living, elevated oil prices, and the recent cycle of rate hikes. ICE vehicles are also falling out of favor as consumers increasingly worry about the high cost of fuel and the environmental impacts of internal combustion engines, and so buyers are switching to HEVs and BEVs as the range of new models gradually improves.
Conversely, we anticipate that battery electric vehicles (BEV) to emerge as a key vehicle choice for Thai consumers, potentially contributing 30% or 129,505 unit sales by 2030. The relatively rapid market shit towards BEVs is attributed to a number of structural factors including
(a) Thailand’s EV 30@30 and EV 3.5 policies act as market catalysts or enablers for the adoption of BEVs. These initiatives provide financial and non-financial incentives to attract global electric vehicle (EV) original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), particularly from China, to enter Thailand’s automotive market. Financial incentives include import duty exemptions through Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with key trading partners such as China and ASEAN countries, as well as cash rebate programs of up to THB 100,000 per EV to reduce upfront ownership costs. Non-financial incentives, such as fast-tracked registration and reduced excise taxes, further support EV adoption. These measures stimulate both the supply and demand sides of the EV market, creating a favorable ecosystem for BEVs.
(b) BEVs offer potential long-term cost savings compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, primarily due to lower fuel and maintenance costs, as electricity used for charging is generally cheaper than gasoline or diesel.
(c) The availability of EV models across a broad price spectrum has expanded significantly, catering to diverse consumer segments. This variety is driven by the entry of new market players and the diversification of offerings by established automakers. Consumers can now choose from budget-friendly models to premium options equipped with advanced features and customizable specifications. This competitive landscape that is centric on price competition encourages adoption across various income levels and consumer preferences.
(d) Continuous improvements in battery technology enhance the viability of BEVs. Key advancements include reductions in the cost per kilowatt-hour (kWh), which have made EVs more affordable, as well as enhancements in battery weight and energy density, leading to lighter batteries with longer driving ranges. Companies such as CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited), a global leader in battery production, and Thailand’s Arun Plus, which focuses on energy solutions, are at the forefront of battery innovation. These advancements address consumer concerns such as range anxiety and affordability while making BEVs more practical for everyday use.
(e) The expansion of EV charging infrastructure is a cornerstone of the growing BEV ecosystem in Thailand. Charging stations are being strategically installed along highways, urban centers, and forecourts to enable national reach. This development reduces range anxiety among consumers, which has historically been a barrier to adoption. Key players such as PTTOR EV Station PluZ, EA Anywhere and PEA VOLTA Charging Station are actively working to increase the density and accessibility of charging points to support the anticipated rise in BEV adoption.
Meanwhile, we expect plug-in hybrid and hybrid passenger vehicles (PHEV & HEV) to account for 25% of total passenger vehicle sales by 2030. Particularly, HEV segment is positioned as a practical choice during the transitionary phase of the automotive market, benefiting from several factors that make HEVs more relevant than plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).
HEVs naturally appeal to consumers by combining the advantages of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and electric vehicles (EVs). They provide improved fuel efficiency and reduced emissions without the need for external charging, which makes them more convenient for buyers who lack easy access to charging infrastructure. In contrast, PHEVs require charging to fully leverage their electric range, which may deter buyers in areas where charging stations are limited or unreliable. HEVs, by automatically switching between their electric motor and ICE, offer seamless performance and reliability, making them a preferred choice for many consumers.
The market’s transitionary stage also bolsters HEV demand. With the current infrastructure for EV charging stations still underdeveloped and concerns about the limited range of many BEVs, buyers are gravitating toward HEVs as a middle-ground solution. HEVs provide extended driving ranges comparable to ICE vehicles, alleviating range anxiety while still offering fuel savings and lower emissions.
Additionally, the competitive landscape has driven a surge in HEV offerings. Major Japanese manufacturers, traditionally strong players in the HEV segment, continue to introduce innovative models with competitive pricing and advanced technology. This is further intensified by the expanding supply of low-cost BEVs, prompting automakers to improve their HEV offerings to maintain market share. The resulting variety of models across price points ensures HEVs remain accessible to a broad customer base. These factors collectively reinforce the relevance of HEVs in Thailand’s passenger vehicle market, positioning them as an attractive option for consumers navigating the transition toward full electrification.
| wdt_ID | wdt_created_by | wdt_created_at | wdt_last_edited_by | wdt_last_edited_at | Indicator | Unit | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:18 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:18 PM | Commercial vehicle unit sales, total | Number of vehicles | 538914 | 448652 | 436380 | 501344 | 368788 | 230455 | 237797 | 245373 | 253190 | 261257 | 269580 | 278169 |
| 17 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:18 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:18 PM | Light commercial vehicle unit sales, total | Number of vehicles | 511435 | 425455 | 405237 | 470114 | 341106 | 214157 | 221010 | 228082 | 235381 | 242913 | 250686 | 258708 |
| 18 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:18 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:18 PM | Heavy truck & bus unit sales, total | Number of vehicles | 27479 | 23197 | 31143 | 31230 | 27682 | 16298 | 16787 | 17291 | 17810 | 18344 | 18894 | 19461 |
Overall, the commercial vehicle segment in Thailand faces challenges in maintaining robust growth, particularly in comparison to the passenger vehicle market, which is expected to benefit from a stronger shift toward electrification and broader consumer demand mainly due to troubling macroeconomic factors such as credit inaccessibility, agricultural performance, and evolving consumer preferences for SUVs that act as indirect competition to pickups.
Thailand’s commercial vehicle segment is predominantly driven by light commercial vehicles (LCVs), which primarily consist of pickups. The segment is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.2%, rising from 230,455 vehicles in 2024 to 278,169 vehicles by 2030. This growth in LCVs is anticipated to outpace that of the heavy truck and bus subsegments during the same period.
The light commercial vehicle segment, encompassing pickups and vans, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.2%, from 214,157 new vehicle sales in 2024 to 258,708 vehicles in 2030. Despite this moderate growth, the segment has faced challenges since 2023 due to rising non-performing loans (NPLs) among low- to mid-income borrowers. This trend is particularly pronounced among individuals in the agricultural sector, where the El Niño phenomenon has exacerbated financial difficulties by triggering droughts and reducing crop yields. These conditions have compounded existing pressures from elevated household debt, higher costs of living, and increased interest rates on auto loans.
Within the LCV category, premium pickups have demonstrated greater resilience to economic pressures. This is largely due to their appeal among higher-income consumers and businesses, who are less sensitive to credit conditions and fluctuations in household finances. Nonetheless, overall demand for LCVs remains closely tied to Thailand’s economic performance, particularly in rural areas where agriculture plays a central role.
The heavy truck and bus segment is forecast to grow at a slower CAGR of 3.0%, increasing from 16,298 new vehicle sales in 2024 to approximately 19,461 vehicles in 2030. Demand in this segment is constrained by sluggish economic conditions, which have dampened investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and trade activities. This, in turn, has moderated the expansion of transport and distribution services, especially when compared to the robust growth observed between 2020 and 2023, a period characterized by a booming e-commerce sector.
The slowdown in e-commerce growth, alongside weaker trade volumes and reduced industrial output, has contributed to a tempered outlook for heavy vehicles. However, there remains a baseline level of demand driven by ongoing urbanization, infrastructure projects, and the need for freight and logistics services in key sectors such as construction and retail.
| wdt_ID | wdt_created_by | wdt_created_at | wdt_last_edited_by | wdt_last_edited_at | Indicator | Unit | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:25 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:25 PM | Light commercial vehicle unit sales, total | Number of vehicles | 511,435 | 425,455 | 405,237 | 470,114 | 341,106 | 214,157 | 221,010 | 228,082 | 235381 | 242913 | 250686 | 258708 |
| 20 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:25 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:25 PM | ICE light commercial vehicle unit sales | Number of vehicles | 511,434 | 425,445 | 405,224 | 470,084 | 340,889 | 211,287 | 215,226 | 219,202 | 220857 | 224824 | 228818 | 232837 |
| 21 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:25 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:25 PM | BEV light commercial vehicle unit sales | Number of vehicles | 1 | 10 | 13 | 30 | 217 | 2,870 | 5,784 | 8,880 | 12169 | 15660 | 19361 | 23284 |
| 22 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:25 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:25 PM | PHEV & HEV light commercial vehicle unit sales | Number of vehicles | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2354 | 2429 | 2507 | 2587 |
| wdt_ID | wdt_created_by | wdt_created_at | wdt_last_edited_by | wdt_last_edited_at | Indicator | Unit | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:26 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:26 PM | Heavy truck & bus unit sales, total | Number of vehicles | 23197 | 31143 | 31230 | 27682 | 16298 | 16787 | 17291 | 17810 | 18344 | 18894 | 19461 | 258708 |
| 24 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:26 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:26 PM | ICE heavy truck and bus unit sales | Number of vehicles | 23194 | 31022 | 30229 | 26188 | 15265 | 15565 | 15868 | 16177 | 16489 | 16805 | 17126 | 232837 |
| 25 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:26 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:26 PM | BEV heavy truck and bus unit sales | Number of vehicles | 2 | 121 | 1000 | 1494 | 987 | 1127 | 1274 | 1430 | 1593 | 1765 | 1946 | 23284 |
| 26 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:26 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:26 PM | PHEV & HEV heavy truck and bus unit sales | Number of vehicles | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 47 | 96 | 148 | 204 | 262 | 324 | 389 | 2587 |
Over the forecast period from 2024 to 2030, the electrification outlook for heavy trucks is expected to remain subdued, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) projected to account for 10% of total vehicle sales by 2030 and hybrid vehicles comprising only 2%. The relatively low adoption rate of BEVs in this segment can be attributed to several factors:
(a) Current battery technologies often lack sufficient energy density for long-haul applications, which limits driving range and payload capacity.
(b) Heavy-duty EV batteries add substantial weight to vehicles, reducing overall payload capacity and operational efficiency for logistics companies.
(c) Charging times at fleet depots are significantly longer compared to the quick refueling process of diesel trucks, disrupting logistics schedules and reducing overall fleet productivity.
(d) Logistics operators remain concerned about the limited range of BEV heavy trucks, particularly for cross-border or long-distance routes, where reliable charging infrastructure may not be readily available.
Despite these technological challenges, there is underlying demand for fully electric trucks, provided they become fully operational and commercially viable for logistics operators. Such vehicles align with large corporations’ efforts to modernize their fleets in support of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals, as well as their commitments to net carbon offset targets. Furthermore, adopting BEVs presents a positive appeal to end customers who are increasingly conscious of sustainability in supply chains.
Operators have also shown a willingness to transition to BEVs if these vehicles deliver immediate cost savings on fuel and maintenance without compromising fleet availability. To achieve widespread adoption, electric trucks must offer minimal downtime and operational reliability comparable to their internal combustion engine (ICE) counterparts.
Meanwhile, for buses and coaches, EV adoption is expected to be driven primarily by state agencies’ initiatives to replace internal combustion engine (ICE) fleets with electric vehicles (EVs), aligning with Thailand’s national agenda for a green transition. In 2024, the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority (BMTA) has announced plans to replace its aging fleet with 3,390 electric buses by 2030, divided into three phases. This effort is part of a broader government strategy to reduce urban air pollution, particularly fine-dust particulate matter, and to promote sustainable public transportation.
Similarly, in 2023 the Bangkok City Council has further solidified this agenda by approving regulations aimed at phasing out all fossil fuel-powered buses in favor of electric alternatives by 2030. This regulatory push underscores the urgency of mitigating environmental and health risks associated with traditional diesel-powered buses in metropolitan areas.
Private sector participation also plays a pivotal role in accelerating EV adoption for buses. Energy Absolute Public Company Ltd, a key player in Thailand’s renewable energy sector, has launched the Bangkok E-Bus Programme. This initiative seeks to transition 100% of privately operated buses in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region to electric power, supported by an expanding network of charging stations. Local companies such as Nex and Mine have already established dominance in Thailand’s electric bus market, collectively controlling over 90% of the segment. Their focus has primarily been on fixed routes in urban areas like Bangkok, where the demand for sustainable public transport is highest.
In 2023, BYD conducted test runs of its electric buses in Bangkok’s Thong Lo area, and in the following year the company has authorized its Thai distributor, Rêver Automotive Co Ltd, to establish an EV bus and truck manufacturing facility in Thailand. A memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed on March 28, 2024, between BYD and Rêver, facilitating the creation of Rêver Bus and Truck Co Ltd under the Rêver group. This new entity will produce electric buses and trucks utilizing BYD’s advanced technologies, including iron-phosphate batteries and six-in-one motor controllers. While the MoU did not specify a timeline for the factory’s construction, it outlined plans to manufacture both internal and external EV components, as well as complete vehicles. The initiative aims to support Thailand’s ambition to become a regional EV hub by providing sustainable transport and logistics solution.
| wdt_ID | wdt_created_by | wdt_created_at | wdt_last_edited_by | wdt_last_edited_at | Indicator | Unit | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:26 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:26 PM | Motorcycle unit sales, total | Number of vehicles | 1718587 | 1516096 | 1606481 | 1792016 | 1856814 | 1706189 | 1740313 | 1775119 | 1810621 | 1846834 | 1883770 | 1921446 |
Motorcycle sales in Thailand are expected to experience modest growth, constrained by a challenging macroeconomic environment that disproportionately impacts lower-income consumers, the primary customer group for motorcycles. Sales are projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.0%, increasing from 1,706,188 units in 2024 to 1,921,446 units by 2030. This modest growth is influenced by several factors: (a) Rising non-performing loans (NPLs) among consumer loans have led to tighter credit lending and higher borrowing costs, particularly for those categorized as high credit risks. (b) Reduced spending power among farm workers and households in the agricultural sector, driven by a combination of lower farm yields and the onset of El Niño, which has exacerbated income challenges for these communities.
These challenges are expected to have a short- to medium-term impact on the motorcycle industry. However, recovery in the service sector, supported by the resumption of tourism—particularly from Chinese visitors—may serve as a stabilizing factor, offsetting some of the decline in income from the agricultural sector.
Furthermore, motorcycles will continue to play a critical role in food delivery and last-mile logistics. Although growth in these sectors may not match the levels seen during the peak of the e-commerce boom in 2020 and 2021, they will remain essential drivers of motorcycle demand.
Once the negative macroeconomic environment begins to ease, the motorcycle market is expected to benefit from growing competition among non-bank financial institutions offering motorcycle financing. Notable players such as Srisawad Corporation, Money Hub, Heng Leasing, and Rabbit Cash are anticipated to drive this trend by providing competitive loan options targeted at low-income segments. These non-bank loan providers may not rely on credit bureau data as they often target individuals with low or no credit history, who may otherwise face difficulties obtaining loans through traditional financial institutions. This increased accessibility to financing is likely to support the expansion of motorcycle ownership, particularly among consumers who may have previously faced credit constraints. However, such loans typically come with stricter conditions or higher interest rates to offset the perceived risk.
| wdt_ID | wdt_created_by | wdt_created_at | wdt_last_edited_by | wdt_last_edited_at | Indicator | Unit | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:27 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:27 PM | Motorcycle unit sales, total | Number of vehicles | 1718587 | 1516096 | 1606481 | 1792016 | 1856814 | 1706189 | 1740313 | 1775119 | 1810621 | 1846834 | 1883770 | 1921446 |
| 29 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:27 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:27 PM | ICE motorcycle unit sales | Number of vehicles | 1714325 | 1513290 | 1604907 | 1790574 | 1855003 | 1699888 | 1729156 | 1758914 | 1789172 | 1819936 | 1851215 | 1883017 |
| 30 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:27 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:27 PM | BEV motorcycle unit sales | Number of vehicles | 33 | 2 | 119 | 976 | 1218 | 4615 | 8274 | 12077 | 16029 | 20134 | 24396 | 28822 |
| 31 | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:27 PM | intellify | 03/01/2025 04:27 PM | PHEV & HEV motorcycle unit sales | Number of vehicles | 4229 | 2804 | 1455 | 466 | 593 | 1686 | 2883 | 4128 | 5421 | 6764 | 8159 | 9607 |
While electric vehicles have been growing in popularity and increasingly penetrating the mass consumer segment, the current level of EV adoption for motorcycles in Thailand remains relatively nascent compared to other vehicle types as in 2024, the penetration rate of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) for motorcycles was only 1.7% of total unit sales. This slower adoption is attributable to several challenges:
(a) Current battery technology has not reached a level that supports daily viable use for most low-income individuals, who rely on motorcycles as their primary mode of transportation. Many motorcycle users in Thailand travel across provinces and cover longer distances than BEV motorcycles are designed for, making them impractical. BEV motorcycles typically offer shorter ranges and require 3-5 hours for a full charge, further limiting their appeal.
(b) There is generally lower consumer awareness of EV motorcycles among the low-income population, both in terms of environmental benefits and potential long-term cost savings.
(c) The market lacks a wide variety of full-size electric motorcycle models. Existing options are predominantly lightweight mopeds or scooters, which do not meet the needs of many traditional motorcycle users.
(d) Distribution channels for EV motorcycles are limited compared to the extensive networks of established Japanese internal combustion engine (ICE) brands such as Honda, Yamaha, Suzuki, and Kawasaki Motors.
(e) The availability of charging stations and battery swapping locations is insufficient when compared to passenger car charging infrastructure. This presents a significant barrier to mass adoption, as charging solutions need to be hyper-localized within communities and low-income areas where motorcycles are the dominant mode of transport.
In the case of motorcycles, battery swapping is gaining popularity as it enables instantaneous “charging” for users with extensive travel needs, especially delivery riders. Over recent years, key battery-swapping players such as Swap & Go (Under PTT Group), Winnonie, and HSEM have been working to expand the availability of swapping stations across the country. However, most of these stations are currently concentrated in the Bangkok area, limiting their accessibility for broader adoption.
Given these technological and commercial limitations, we project that the growth of EV adoption for motorcycles will remain slow in the short term. However, the segment holds significant upside potential in the future, especially as battery technology improves, infrastructure expands, and market awareness grows. This positions EV motorcycles as a key area of opportunity in Thailand’s broader electrification efforts, albeit with a lagging timeline compared to more mature automotive segments.
While in the short to medium term, Thailand’s automotive industry is expected to face challenges, stemming mainly from rising non-performing loans (NPLs) and tighter auto loan conditions, the industry itself possesses strong underlying fundamentals that could support the country in becoming a regional automotive hub for the Southeast Asian region. Below, we outline the key growth drivers shaping the industry’s growth trajectory:
Well-established automotive supply chain
Thailand’s automotive sector is supported by a well-established supply chain that has developed over several decades. The nation accommodates over 700 Tier-1 suppliers and more than 1,100 Tier-2 and Tier-3 suppliers, covering components and parts such as plastics, rubber, electronics, and safety systems. This extensive network provides automakers with access to essential components, facilitating efficient production processes, and ultimately cost-efficient vehicles.
Efficient port and logistics infrastructure
Thailand’s efficient port and logistics infrastructure plays a critical role in supporting the growth of its automotive sector, particularly as an export-oriented industry. At the core of this strength is Laem Chabang Port, the country’s largest deep-sea port, which handles a significant volume of vehicle exports with the capacity to accommodate large vessels and seamless international shipments. Complementing this is the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), strategically located in Chonburi, Chachoengsao, and Rayong provinces, which serves as a hub for automotive manufacturing and export activities, supported by its well-developed infrastructure. Thailand’s comprehensive road and rail networks ensure efficient inland transportation of automotive components and finished vehicles, with ongoing government investments further enhancing connectivity between production centers and ports. Notably, the Ministry of Transport has committed THB 1.8 trillion (approximately USD 51 billion) to infrastructure upgrades, including road, rail, and port projects. These developments collectively strengthen Thailand’s automotive supply chain and reinforce its position as a leading automotive hub for the Southeast Asian region.
Cost-competitive labor and a business-friendly environment
Thailand’s relatively low labor costs provide a cost-competitive advantage for automakers, while its business-friendly policies attract significant foreign direct investment. The country continues to benefit from lower labor costs compared to regional competitors, enabling manufacturers to maintain profitability and global competitiveness (although Vietnam has been increasingly challenging Thailand’s position). Thailand has an estimated 700,000 skilled workers in automotive and mechanical engineering, supporting the expansion of factory jobs. This workforce is particularly critical as Chinese OEMs and other EV manufacturers establish local production facilities to meet local content requirements under the EV 3.5 policy from 2026-2027 onwards.
This labor advantage is further complemented by a business-friendly environment supported by government policies and incentives. The Board of Investment (BOI) plays a central role by offering corporate income tax exemptions for up to eight years, import duty waivers, and investment promotion measures for both foreign and domestic manufacturers. These policies enhance Thailand’s attractiveness as a hub for automotive production and drive continued growth in the sector.
Strong trade links and agreements
Thailand’s Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) play a crucial role in supporting the growth of its automotive industry, particularly in promoting the adoption and production of electric vehicles (EVs). By significantly reducing or eliminating the 80% import duty on Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) classified as Completely Built Units (CBUs), FTAs provide cost advantages to partner countries. Key agreements, such as the ASEAN-China FTA and ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement, grant full duty exemptions to countries like China, Malaysia, and Singapore. Similarly, other FTAs with nations such as Japan (20% reduced duty), South Korea (40% reduced duty), and Australia (exempt) create a favorable environment for EV imports. These benefits align with Thailand’s EV 3.5 policy, which further impose requirement on local production to meet increasing domestic and regional demand.
However, the current structure of these FTAs systematically tilts in favor of China, which has enjoyed full duty exemptions since 2018 under the ASEAN-China FTA. This positions Chinese automakers to dominate the Thai EV market, particularly in BEV imports, while countries without trade agreements face an 80% import duty.
Supportive regulatory policies for EVs and hybrids
Thailand has implemented a comprehensive set of policies to bolster its automotive industry, particularly focusing on the transition to electric vehicles (EVs). The National EV Roadmap, known as the 30@30 policy, aims for 30% of total vehicle production to be zero-emission vehicles by 2030. To support this transition, the government offers substantial financial incentives. The Board of Investment (BOI) provides corporate income tax exemptions ranging from 8 to 13 years for companies investing in EV production and related components. Additionally, the EV 3.5 subsidy program, effective from 2024 to 2027, offers cash subsidies between THB 50,000 to 100,000 per battery electric vehicle (BEV) passenger car or pick-up truck, depending on battery size. Excise tax reductions have also been implemented, lowering rates from 8% to 2% for passenger cars and from 10% to 0% for pick-up trucks. The Ministry of Energy provides subsidies to establish public EV charging stations, while the Thai Industrial Standards Institute (TISI) is developing national standards for EV charging systems and battery safety. To promote local manufacturing and reduce reliance on imports, the government has set domestic production requirements for completely built-up units (CBUs), mandating a 1:2 production ratio by 2026 and a 1:3 ratio by 2027.
Resolution of chip shortages
The easing of semiconductor shortages, which had constrained global production in recent years, has allowed automakers to ramp up manufacturing and clear backlogs carried over from 2022. This recovery in chip availability has enabled manufacturers to meet pent-up consumer demand and expand production capacities, providing a much-needed boost to Thailand’s automotive output.
Growing consumer familiarity with Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs)
Thai consumers are gradually becoming more receptive to the transition to electric vehicles (EVs), moving from early adopters to a broader niche audience as the market matures. This shift is supported by increasing market promotions, public awareness campaigns, and the availability of more affordable models, which are helping to bring EVs into the mainstream.
Economic challenges
Thailand’s automotive industry faces significant economic challenges that constrain consumer demand and affect the overall market. High household debt levels, among the highest in Southeast Asia, have directly impacted consumer purchasing power, making it difficult for many to afford big-ticket purchases such as vehicles. Negative consumer sentiment, driven by ongoing economic uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and the rising cost of living, has further suppressed demand. Adding to this, financial institutions have adopted more stringent lending criteria for auto loans due to the rise in non-performing loans (NPLs). This tightening of credit has reduced access to financing for potential buyers, particularly in the mid- and lower-income segments, exacerbating the decline in vehicle sales.
Increasing price competition and pressure on profitability
Thailand’s automotive market is experiencing intensifying price competition, particularly driven by the entry of Chinese EV players offering value-for-money options and aggressive marketing promotions. These promotions include cashback offers and discounts, which have disrupted the traditional market structure and forced established automakers to re-evaluate their pricing strategies. The value proposition provided by Chinese EV brands has captured the attention of cost-conscious consumers, further challenging traditional players in the mid- to lower-price segments, particularly for ICE eco cars.
Moreover, the implementation of local production offset requirements under the EV 3.5 policy is expected to impact pricing dynamics. Starting in 2026, manufacturers will need to produce two locally manufactured vehicles for every imported CBU, increasing to three by 2027. As this policy takes effect, leading automakers will likely need to adjust their pricing structures to account for the higher costs associated with local production compared to importing CBUs. This shift could create additional pressure on profitability, particularly for automakers that rely heavily on cost efficiency and volume-based strategies (With main production hubs in China, these automakers benefit from high-volume manufacturing for global exports, allowing them to achieve lower per-unit costs compared to factories in Thailand with potentially lower production volumes).
The combination of these factors is expected to reshape Thailand’s automotive landscape, pushing manufacturers to find innovative ways to maintain competitiveness while managing cost and profitability pressures in an increasingly price-sensitive market.
Market dynamics and overcapacity risks
The automotive market in Thailand is also grappling with risks tied to shifting market dynamics and oversupply issues. Automakers have been forced to revise production targets downward in response to weakening demand, with some Japanese manufacturers in Thailand scaling back operations to single shifts and cutting overtime. Oversupply risks are particularly evident in the electric vehicle (EV) segment, where imports from China have struggled to find buyers. Reports indicate over 10,000 EVs are currently sitting unused at ports, forcing manufacturers to rent additional storage facilities in key logistics hubs like Laem Chabang, Chonburi, and Rayong.
This oversupply challenge is compounded by falling prices in the pre-owned vehicle market, with reductions of 10-30% making used vehicles a more attractive option for buyers and further dampening demand for new cars. Additionally, rising competition, particularly from Chinese automakers benefiting from Thailand’s trade arrangements, has placed downward pressure on profitability for traditional players. The potential withdrawal of key financial benefits, such as import tax exemptions for Completely Built Units (CBUs), presents further risks to long-term profitability.
Policy and regulatory pressures
Thailand’s automotive sector faces mounting challenges from policy and regulatory changes that increase costs and impact market dynamics. The enforcement of Euro 5 emissions standards for diesel vehicles in 2024 is expected to drive up production costs, ultimately leading to higher vehicle prices and weaker demand. At the same time, the reduction in subsidies and incentives for EV buyers risks slowing the momentum of EV adoption, undermining efforts to transition to greener transportation solutions.
Delays in government-backed infrastructure projects have also had an adverse impact, particularly on the demand for commercial vehicles used in transportation services across provincial areas. This reduction in infrastructure-related spending has weakened an important driver of vehicle sales, adding to the sector’s broader challenges.
External trade and supply chain risks
Global trade uncertainties and supply chain vulnerabilities pose additional risks to Thailand’s automotive industry. The potential US-China tech war and restrictions on semiconductor exports have created periodic disruptions in the global supply chain, threatening the availability of critical components such as chips that are essential for vehicle production.
Export growth has also been hindered by stricter emissions regulations in key markets such as Australia, which increase compliance costs for Thai manufacturers and reduce competitiveness. Meanwhile, the shift toward rail transport for shorter-distance logistics is diminishing demand for light commercial vehicles (LCVs) used in hub-to-hub transportation, particularly in urban and industrial areas.
Strategic partnerships
We observed that global and local players are increasingly engaging in collaborations to strengthen their foothold in the industry. BYD, for example, has acquired a 20% stake in Rever Automotive, a subsidiary of Siam Motors Group, enhancing its sales network and diversifying its offerings to include both passenger and commercial EVs. Similarly, Arun Plus, a subsidiary of PTT Public Company Limited, has partnered with CATL to establish an integrated EV supply chain in ASEAN, focusing on battery technology. Furthermore, Foxconn has joined forces with Arun Plus to launch Horizon Plus, an initiative to manufacture EVs locally in Thailand. These partnerships underscore a collective strategy to capitalize on Thailand’s growing role as a regional hub for EV production.
Value for money options
Consumers are increasingly prioritizing vehicles that offer strong value for money, prompting automakers to enhance features in lower- to mid-range models while maintaining competitive price points. This trend is particularly evident in the SUV segment, where rising demand is pushing automakers to produce models at price points that rival eco-cars in the sedan and hatchback categories. Traditionally, SUVs were perceived as larger vehicles with premium price tags; however, this dynamic is shifting as manufacturers cater to cost-conscious buyers.
In addition to lower price points, aggressive marketing strategies are further reducing upfront costs for buyers. These include offers such as free home EV chargers, extended warranties for EV batteries, and other value-added services, making SUVs more accessible to a broader segment of the population. This gradual shift in consumer preference has been redefining consumer expectations in different vehicle segments and price tags in term that these should be justifiable for its perceived product quality.
Online to offline as a key distribution strategy
The dealership model has long been a central component of Thailand’s automotive industry, where original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) rely on local distributors to handle vehicle sales, primarily through physical showrooms and motor shows. However, we observe an increasing emphasis on an online-to-offline (O2O) approach, driven by dealerships seeking to remain competitive in a rapidly changing retail environment.
In this O2O model, dealerships are expanding their digital presence by utilizing social media platforms and online marketing channels. These efforts aim to showcase vehicle features, promote use cases, and offer targeted discounts or promotions to attract potential customers. The objective is to drive online engagement and convert it into physical visits to showrooms, where the final stages of the purchasing journey take place. This strategy is becoming more critical as dealerships compete for consumer attention in an increasingly crowded market. While the O2O approach has traditionally been more prominent in the internal combustion engine (ICE) segment, it is now playing an even more significant role in the growing electric vehicle (EV) market, where early adopters tend to be tech-savvy consumers who expect more convenient and informative purchasing experiences.
Emerging EV ecosystem
Thailand’s transition toward electric vehicles (EVs) is supported by developments across the value chain, from upstream production to downstream services. The rise in EV ownership and operation has spurred growing demand for ancillary products and services, creating opportunities for new and existing players to tap into this evolving ecosystem.
In the downstream segment, companies such as EVMe have established a foothold by offering integrated services, including EV rental, long-term leasing, and car dealership solutions. These services cater to both individual and corporate customers, addressing diverse market needs and promoting greater accessibility to EVs. Additionally, the increasing demand for pre-owned EVs has given rise to marketplace platforms such as EV2Car, which enable buyers and sellers to transact in a dedicated environment tailored to second-hand EVs, further expanding the ecosystem. On the upstream side, we observe growing commitments from global and regional players, particularly from China, to establish local production facilities. These investments are focused on manufacturing and assembling lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries to supply OEMs, reducing reliance on imports. As the ecosystem matures, we expect a greater focus on key areas such as battery recycling, advanced research and development (R&D) in EV technologies, and tailored financial services to support EV purchases
Promotion of Pickup Production (1997–2008)
From 1997 to 2008, the Thai government prioritized the development of 1-tonne pickups, establishing this class of commercial vehicle as the country’s first “product champion.” Policies were implemented to attract global manufacturers to set up production facilities for pickups, alongside measures to stimulate domestic demand. Diesel prices were kept lower than gasoline, and duties on pickups were reduced to 3%, compared to 30-50% for passenger vehicles. These initiatives significantly boosted sales, making pickups a dominant segment in the market. At its peak, commercial vehicles accounted for over 70% of total automotive production in Thailand.
Promotion of Eco Car Production (2009–2015)
Between 2009 and 2015, the focus shifted to the production of fuel-efficient “eco cars,” which became Thailand’s second “product champion.” The government introduced tax incentives under the “Eco Car Phase I” program in 2009 and expanded these in 2015 with “Eco Car Phase II.” To qualify for these incentives, automakers were required to meet export and production targets. Other factors supporting eco car demand included advancements in gasoline engine technology enabling the use of ethanol-based fuels (gasohol), government subsidies for gasohol prices, and the inclusion of eco cars in the 2012–2013 first-car buyer scheme, allowing buyers to reclaim vehicle duties.
In 2016, vehicle excise taxes were restructured to reflect CO2 emissions and engine size, lowering duties on low-emission eco cars from 17% to 12–15%. However, these rates will expire in 2025, after which duties will gradually increase under Eco Car Phase II requirements. From 2026, duties on low-emission eco cars (with less than 100g CO2 emissions per kilometer and at least two advanced driver-assistance systems) will start at 13%, increasing by 1% every two years to reach 15% in 2030. Vehicles without ADAS will face duties of 25% in 2026, rising to 30% by 2030.
Promotion of EV Production (2016–Present)
Following Thailand’s commitment to the 2016 Paris Agreement, the government launched initiatives to transition the transport sector toward net-zero carbon emissions by 2065–2070. The National EV Policy Committee has outlined a roadmap with staged targets to promote EV adoption and production. By 2025, 10% of newly manufactured vehicles are targeted to be EVs, accounting for 30% of new registrations. These figures are expected to rise to 30% and 50% by 2030, and to 50% and 100% by 2035.
To support this transition, the government introduced the EV 3.0 (2022–2025) and EV 3.5 (2024–2027) measures, which provide subsidies of THB 50,000–150,000 for new EV buyers, reduce import duties on EVs, and adjust excise tax rates. Despite these efforts, the shift to fully electric vehicles poses challenges for traditional automotive parts suppliers, particularly Tier 1–3 powertrain and engine component manufacturers, who risk losing relevance unless they diversify or pivot their product offerings.
Chinese suppliers, including subsidiaries and pre-existing partners of major Chinese automakers, have increasingly entered the Thai market, leveraging opportunities to support growing EV production. This migration could position local suppliers to form valuable partnerships or face intensified competition as the industry pivots toward electric mobility.
Federation of Thai Industries (FTI)
Department of Land and Transport
Thailand Automotive Institute
Autolife Thailand
International Energy Agency (IEA)
Other public data sourcesÂ
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